Tag Archives: NGN yield curve

Nigeria – Fixed Income Weekly

Inflation declined thanks to base effects in December, but monthly trends show no signs of easing:  The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put out the last monthly CPI data for 2022 which showed a moderation in the headline number to 21.34% from 21.47% in the prior month. This was not too surprising given the large […]

Nigeria Fixed Income Weekly

Build-up in system liquidity from NTB redemptions drives bullish trends across debt markets: Over the last two weeks, financial markets have been robustly liquid which has pushed interbank rates to 14-15% from the 16-20% range in the preceding weeks. The liquidity appears to have emanated from the nearly NGN2trillion of NTB redemptions by the DMO […]

Nigeria – Macroeconomics Commentary

Inflation lost steam in October: False alarm or disinflation? The NBS put out CPI data for October which showed that headline inflation came in at 21.09%, behind market expectations for 21.3%. This reflects a second month of deceleration in the monthly print to 1.24% (September: 1.36%) due to a slowdown in food inflation. However, dissecting […]

Nigeria – Fixed Income Weekly

CBN’s planned changes to Naira banknotes, much ado about nothing: On Tuesday, the CBN announced that it had received presidential approval to change the design of three bank notes (NGN200, NGN500 and NGN1000). In justifying its decision, the CBN cited a discomfort with large currency holdings outside the banking system (September 2022: 85% of currency […]

Nigeria Fixed Income Weekly

The Weeks that were (Oct 1-15)Tight liquidity conditions push interbank rates over 16%: Following the September 2022 MPC meeting where the CBN delivered a 150bps hike in the key MPR rate and more importantly a 500bps increase in the CRR to 32.5%, liquidity conditions across the banking system have generally thinned out. This is evident […]

Nigeria Fixed Income Weekly

The Week that was (September 6-10) 1-yr NTB paper hits 10%, the beginning of the end? In a surprise move, the DMO raised the stop-rate on the 1-year NTB tenor by 150bps to 10% (effective yield: 11.1%). Though markets have been tight and the DMO had relied on a helping hand from the CBN it […]

Nigeria Fixed Income Weekly

Inflation hits 17-year high, Economy muddles along, CBN takes steps towards orthodoxy, DMO surrenders, Naira on the ropes The Week that Was (August 15-26) Nigeria’s economy expands over Q2 2022, oil now only 6% of the economy: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put out economic data for the second quarter which showed that Nigeria’s […]

Nigeria – Fixed Income Weekly

Trade balance improves, capital flows remain weak, another smooth NT-bill auction and bond market bearish remain in charge The Week that Was (August 8-12) Merchandise trade account moves into green in H1 2022: Updated CBN trade data through June 2022 showed that Nigeria’s external goods account moved into positive territory (USD5.6billion) vs a deficit of […]

Nigeria Fixed Income Weekly

The Week that Was (August 1-5) Oil production slips, CBN Ways & Means rises to NGN20trillion, Rates maintain upward drift and Naira pares losses. Oil production reverses recent gains in July, changing output mix highlights fiscal revenue and FX related headaches:  In a reverse from the pick-up recorded over June, data from the Nigerian Upstream […]

Nigeria – Fixed Income Weekly

The Week that Was (July 25-29) Nigeria exhausts ECA balances, another ‘smooth’ NTB auction, Nigerian Eurobonds rally The end of the road for the Excess Crude Account: Nigeria’s finance minister Zainab Ahmed reported that the Excess Crude Account (ECA) balance had dropped from USD35million in January 2022 to USD337k at the end of June 2022 […]