Category Nigerian Economy

Nigerian Macroeconomics Commentary

Nigeria’s GDP growth slows on weak oil production, non-oil remains resilient: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported Q3 2022 output data which showed a deceleration in economic growth to 2.25% y/y relative to 3.54% print in Q2 2022. The main driver of the slowdown was the oil sector where output shrank 22% in Q3 […]

Nigeria – Fixed Income Weekly

CBN’s planned changes to Naira banknotes, much ado about nothing: On Tuesday, the CBN announced that it had received presidential approval to change the design of three bank notes (NGN200, NGN500 and NGN1000). In justifying its decision, the CBN cited a discomfort with large currency holdings outside the banking system (September 2022: 85% of currency […]

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Revisiting Nigeria’s petrol price/subsidy dilemma

I wrote this originally in 2011 as entry for an essay competition titled “Strategies for Taking the Benefits of Oil Subsidy to the Highest Number of Nigerians“. I never heard back from the organizers but as I was looking for material on an article I’m working about the current fuel price dilemma, my mind wandered […]

Rejigging Nigeria’s economic growth engine: The courage to act

Four years on from the first annual contraction in economic activity in over three decades, the odds are high, that Nigeria’s economy will experience another full year decline after going into a technical recession in Q3 2020. Across the 2016 recession and ongoing 2020 episode, Nigeria’s economy faced exogenous shocks, a sharp drop in oil […]

A week of stunning reversals

Event: Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) released two circulars aimed at addressing ongoing issues within the FX and fixed income market. The first circular was targeted as remittances, which comes after a renewed attack by the CBN governor on the media’s focus on the parallel market rate, while the latter announced the […]

Q2 2020 GDP Report: Covid-19 restrictions and OPEC+ compliance force a contraction, but a short-lived recession on the cards

The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics released its Q2 2020 report which in line with the pattern across most economies showed a covid-19 induced contraction of 6.1%. This print looks less worse that the large declines observed across many developed countries which, in my view, is testament to the less strict nature of compliance with covid-19 […]

Avoiding 2016: What Nigeria should do to fight the coming economic storm

Often, I try to write in a manner that is neutral wherein I stack up facts to lead to an outcome. Today, I will be breaking that rule to act as active participant in this piece. Nigeria faces a crisis and our policy makers must make bold decisions some of which will be bitter. This […]

November 2017 MPC – Abdul Ganiyu Garba

My favourite MPC member had a lot to say at his last monetary policy meeting. Hope you enjoy it. GARBA, ABDUL-GANIYU Decision My vote is similar to the one I offered in my September 2017 personal statement except that instead of a 50 basis point rate cut, I vote to reduce the MPR by 100 […]

Towards Petrol Price Deregulation in Nigeria

…Nations sometimes do manage to adopt efficient institutions and achieve prosperity, but alas, these are the rare cases…To understand this, you have to go beyond economics and expert advice, instead, study how decisions get made, who gets to make them, and why these people decide to do what they do. This is the study of […]

CBN Deficit financing: A word of caution on interpretation

As is customary ahead of the start of its two day monetary policy retreat for September 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) released the personal statements of members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) from the July meeting. In one of the statements, Dr. Doyin Salami, stated that the apex bank has been running […]