Category Nigerian Economy

November 2017 MPC – Abdul Ganiyu Garba

My favourite MPC member had a lot to say at his last monetary policy meeting. Hope you enjoy it. GARBA, ABDUL-GANIYU Decision My vote is similar to the one I offered in my September 2017 personal statement except that instead of a 50 basis point rate cut, I vote to reduce the MPR by 100 […]

Towards Petrol Price Deregulation in Nigeria

…Nations sometimes do manage to adopt efficient institutions and achieve prosperity, but alas, these are the rare cases…To understand this, you have to go beyond economics and expert advice, instead, study how decisions get made, who gets to make them, and why these people decide to do what they do. This is the study of […]

CBN Deficit financing: A word of caution on interpretation

As is customary ahead of the start of its two day monetary policy retreat for September 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) released the personal statements of members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) from the July meeting. In one of the statements, Dr. Doyin Salami, stated that the apex bank has been running […]

July Inflation: Downtrend in inflation now has ‘legs’

Inflation slows down for the sixth month  Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the much delayed July 2017 inflation report and for sixth consecutive month, the headline reading declined to 16.05% y/y. That said, much of the focus in the press has been on food inflation which hit an eight year high […]

Dear Finance Minister, Please drop the refinancing idea

Last week, the Finance Minister, Kemi Adeosun announced that the Federal Executive Council had approved a plan to refinance $3billion (N1.1trillion) worth of Nigerian Treasury Bills with issuance of 3-year dollar bonds. The aim of the plan, which is still to go the National Assembly for approval, is to lower debt service costs as by […]

Nigeria – Fixed Income Weekly

The week that was (July 17-21) – Yields curve rises on softening system liquidity Despite net OMO bill issuances, NTB yields soften: Despite sustained liquidity tightening as the CBN issued NGN275bn worth of OMO bills to take out NGN97bn in maturities, benchmark Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) yields declined: 91-day ( down 510bps), 182-day (down 100bps) […]

June 2017 Inflation: Headline reading positively surprises, but no respite for bond market bulls

Softer food inflation induces a slowdown in monthly inflation On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the June 2017 inflation numbers and contrary to my call for a sticky number at 16.3% y/y, headline inflation declined for the fifth consecutive month to 16.1% y/y. (May : 16.3% y/y). In recent readings, inflation had […]