Author Archives: wallesmit

IMF and the Naira Valuation: Hidden Intentions or Naive Estimation?

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV report on Nigeria, which essentially is the international agency’s review of key macroeconomic developments in Nigeria over 2016 and its recommendations for policy makers on how to manage the economy in the near and medium term. The report, which can be assessed here, is […]

Which way Nigeria: To float or not?

No single exchange rate regime is appropriate for all countries in all circumstances. Countries will have to weigh the costs and benefits of floating in light of both their economic and their institutional readiness.

EXCERPTS FROM THE SEPTEMBER 2016 MPC

Last week the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria voted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at the record 14% level despite fresh data on Monday indicating that the economy shrank for the third consecutive quarter. Not that this was unexpected as a Bloomberg poll of economists all expected no […]

Letter To The President: A Plan Beats No Plan

Over the last few months I’ve been reading the book Stress Test by Former US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner – written about the 2008-2009 global financial crises from his perspective as the head of the New York Fed and later as Obama’s finance minister. The central idea is that financial crises world over share a […]

The impossible trinity and the naira

The decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to adopt a flexible exchange rate regime in May sparked a mixed bag of responses largely positive and domestic equity markets rallied. As with a lot of things, the apex bank Governor nearly managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by hinting at a […]

EXCERPTS FROM THE JANUARY 2016 MPC

At the last MPC, the Central Bank of Nigeria left all policy parameters unchanged electing to ignore a wave of articles calling for a naira devaluation despite clear signals from President Muhammadu Buhari about maintaining the status quo on the currency. As usual my favourite MPC member had a lot to say. Please enjoy his […]

November 2015 MPC Post Mortem: CBN switches the easing tap on

In contrast to prior meetings in 2015, the decisions reached at the end of the two day monetary policy meeting by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this week have generated quite a lot of commentary. Unsurprising you might say, afterall, the CBN eased monetary policy considerably for the first time in six years: by […]