The man of system…is apt to be very wise in his own conceit; and is often so enamoured with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government, that he cannot suffer the smallest deviation from any part of it… He seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great […]


Inflation declined thanks to base effects in December, but monthly trends show no signs of easing:  The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put out the last monthly CPI data for 2022 which showed a moderation in the headline number to 21.34% from 21.47% in the prior month. This was not too surprising given the large […]

2022 Review: Bear flattening as short-term rates lead the curve higher Following the deep bear market of 2021, when fixed income yields reversed from the lows of 2020 and bond prices slumped 35%, the year 2022 opened to bullish sentiments occasioned by a tidal wave of liquidity from the uncontested redemption of the January 2022 […]

Build-up in system liquidity from NTB redemptions drives bullish trends across debt markets: Over the last two weeks, financial markets have been robustly liquid which has pushed interbank rates to 14-15% from the 16-20% range in the preceding weeks. The liquidity appears to have emanated from the nearly NGN2trillion of NTB redemptions by the DMO […]

Nigeria’s GDP growth slows on weak oil production, non-oil remains resilient: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported Q3 2022 output data which showed a deceleration in economic growth to 2.25% y/y relative to 3.54% print in Q2 2022. The main driver of the slowdown was the oil sector where output shrank 22% in Q3 […]

Inflation lost steam in October: False alarm or disinflation? The NBS put out CPI data for October which showed that headline inflation came in at 21.09%, behind market expectations for 21.3%. This reflects a second month of deceleration in the monthly print to 1.24% (September: 1.36%) due to a slowdown in food inflation. However, dissecting […]

CBN’s planned changes to Naira banknotes, much ado about nothing: On Tuesday, the CBN announced that it had received presidential approval to change the design of three bank notes (NGN200, NGN500 and NGN1000). In justifying its decision, the CBN cited a discomfort with large currency holdings outside the banking system (September 2022: 85% of currency […]

The Week that was (October 17-21) CBN rule change on SLF access drives low subscription at the auction, yields return to 15-16%: In the lead up to the October 2022 bond auction, the CBN had released a circular reiterating its rule that access to its discount lending window would not be available to banks on […]

The Weeks that were (Oct 1-15)Tight liquidity conditions push interbank rates over 16%: Following the September 2022 MPC meeting where the CBN delivered a 150bps hike in the key MPR rate and more importantly a 500bps increase in the CRR to 32.5%, liquidity conditions across the banking system have generally thinned out. This is evident […]

The Week That Was (September 12-16) Headline inflation clears 20%, but slowdown in m/m suggests peak in sight: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published CPI data for August which showed that prices facing the average Nigerian climbed 20.52% on a y/y basis with renewed pressures in Food (+23.1% y/y) – a multi-decade high. Adjusted […]